Export to grow 4-5% this year

The Center for International Trade Studies of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce forecasts export growth this year to increase 4-5% but under condition that the current political turmoil ends as soon as possible.

The center director Dr Aat Pisanvanich said export growth for 2104 was expected to be 2.1-5.6% or an average 3.8% a year, a recovery from last year’s minus growth of 0.25%.

For the first quarter of this fiscal year, he forecast minus growth of 1.9-1.5%, an average 0.15% minus growth for the fourth consecutive quarter from the second quarter of last year as it was in the period of the start of the global economic recovery.

But he said that although improvement was seen in several markets, Japan remains in slow pace growth when its government imposed a 5-8% tax increases that has forced its people to spend less.

He forecast Thai export to turn positive in the second quarter because of the full recovery of the world economy, particularly Thailand’s trading partners, and stronger baht of 32.07-34.24 baht to a dollar or an average 33.16 baht to a dollar, the lowest level in five years or a devaluation of 7.7% from last year.

Thai export remains at risk from the economic recovery, fluctuation of the baht currency, inflation rate of developed countries and domestic political instability.

But he was optimistic that if the internal political situation eases, exports in the second to fourth quarter would return on a positive trend with the second quarter growing 4% and 7% in the third quarter, and 10% in the fourth quarter, making total growth this year to around 4-5%.

He also said that although the current political turmoil still has not affected exports when there is no closure of airports and seaports that could wreck foreign investors’ confidence, the government should assure investors that Thailand is still in the capable position to export on schedules even there is internal problem to avoid affect future’s orders.

source from http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/